Counting 2023 (4) ｜ Soda futures-the futures with the largest volume.

existIn the financial futures market in 2023, soda ash futures, like a dark horse, stood out with a total turnover of 556.2 million lots in the whole year.,This oneHigh amountThe turnover has steadily occupied the total turnover of Zhengshang Institute in the whole year.15.74%, even accounting for 6.54% of the total futures turnover in China. thisSample transaction volume dataIt not only attracts people’s attention, but also highlights the market heat of soda ash futures.

Image source: Shen Yin Wanguo Futures China Futures Association

Soda soda, this oneChemical plateThe bright pearl has many aliases such as soda, alkali ash, alkali noodles and washing alkali.,The component is sodium carbonate., is an important basic chemical raw material andOne of the two alkalis in "three acids and two alkalis" is known as "the mother of chemical industry".

Image source: Zhengshang Institute

pureAlkali futuresTaking soda ash as the target, itThe trading unit is usually20 tons/lot, the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton..The trading hours of soda ash futures are usually the morning of working days.9:00-11:30, 1:30-3:00, and night trading hours.At the beginning of its listing, the design price limit is4%, the minimum deposit is 5%, the price limit andThe margin ratio shall be adjusted by the exchange according to the market risk.

Soda futures contract information Image source: Zhengshang Institute

Fluctuation range of soda ash futures in 2023Big, can be called itsThe most in history,threeThe second sharp drop and2The sharp rise was interwoven and performed throughout the year.sixA ups and downs of the market stage,It provides investors with rich trading opportunities..Especially inIn the wave of decline in May, in the 17th National Futures Firm Competition held by Futures Daily, some customers made brilliant achievements with their keen insight into the market.

sequenceTop 10 Data before 17th National Futures Firm Competition Date May 25th, 2023 Source: Futures Daily.

The specific market stages of soda ash futures are divided as follows:

Image source: Shen Yin Wanguo Futures

1.Beginning of the yearMid-MarchHigh shock. At this stage, the futures price of soda ash continued last year.Strong performance since the beginning of November, and left a sharp head on the daily K-line chart at the end of January and began to reverse. Since then, the price has started to decline, and the overall price has risen first and then fell, showing a high consolidation trend, and once climbed to the highest point of 2974 yuan in the year. At this stage, the inventory of soda enterprises is low, and the downstream float glass procurement is also more active.

2. From mid-March to the end of May, it fell by over 40%, with the lowest price of 1,490 yuan/ton. Judging from the K-line chart of the main force of soda ash futures, during this period of decline, the number of negative lines and the extent of decline are far greater than the number of positive lines and the extent of rebound here, and the gaps of multiple gaps are particularly eye-catching, showing a strong empty advantage. Especially since the end of April, the price of soda ash futures has further accelerated to fall, first falling below the lowest point around November last year, setting the lowest price in a year. Subsequently, the decline continued, and on May 22, it once again walked out of a bottom big Yinxian line with a decline of more than 8%. When this round of high-level decline occurred, it was just as the production of Yuanxing Energy was approaching, and alkali plants began to be tired, and some alkali plants rushed to ship. At the same time,European and American banking crisis broke out.

3. It rose from July to the end of August. In this strong rising process, the overall increase was close to 40%. During the period from August 2 to August 7, although the main force of soda ash futures once had a callback, the callback did not last long. In the following days, the buyer’s power regained the dominant position and recovered the lost ground by way of daily limit. On the K-line chart, the increase on August 17th was 6.43%, which not only enlarged the trading volume by 60% on that day, but also set the highest increase on that day in 2023, and the buying power was extremely strong. On August 19, the main force of this variety made another effort, and directly broke through the highest point since the callback by daily limit, announcing the end of this short callback, and then continued to hit a recent high. At this stage, the soda ash industry began to enter the traditional maintenance season, and some new production capacity was not put into operation smoothly. The inventory of soda ash enterprises gradually fell to the low level in the past five years, and the market circulation supply was gradually tense.

From the end of August to the end of October, it fell by more than 20%, and the lowest price was 1645 yuan. At the beginning of the decline at the end of August, the main contract of this variety directly swallowed up the increase of several positive lines in the previous period by the way of down limit, which showed the sharp change of market sentiment, and the subsequent decline was mainly a slow downward decline. At this stage, the industry overhaul ended, and at the same time, the new production capacity began to be realized. The output of soda ash in Zhou Du not only exceeded the same period of last year, but also reached a record high.

5. It rose from November to mid-December. In this short period of more than 30 trading days, soda ash once again came out of a relatively large upward market, with a cumulative increase of 45%. The process of this round of rising is not smooth sailing. On the second trading day when the Dayang line rose several times, there was a big decline in the rebellious big yin, which once staged a thrilling "roller coaster" market in the day, but it still rose after the callback, and then continued to rise with a stronger momentum, breaking through the stage high point and reaching the highest level of 2510 yuan. At this stage,The introduction of special treasury bonds and the continuation of the policy of stabilizing real estate ended the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle.,At the same timeSeveral large soda plants in Qinghai stopped production and were overhauled.Such as the impact of eventsSupply fell again..

6. The last round of decline after mid-December, which lasted until mid-January 2024, with a cumulative decline of about 25%. From the K-line chart, the trend of this wave of falling market is also particularly coherent. During this period, many parties occasionally made efforts to launch a rebound, but they often ended up with a long shadow line on the daily K-line, showing the heavy selling pressure above. At this stage, the third line of Mongolia Boyuan’s new production capacity was put into use, the downstream float glass was purchased cautiously, and the inventory of soda enterprises slowly picked up.

In 2023, the trend of soda ash futures showed a distinct rhythm of ups and downs, which provided investors with rich trading opportunities.,And what is the relationship between this rhythm of ups and downs and the spot market? We will make a comparison next.

The following figureWe can clearly see that inFor most of 2023, the price trend of soda ash futures and spot market has been maintained.StrongThe tacit understanding. The soda ash futures market has a good price discovery function and can provide reference for the spot market.

Image source: Shen Yin International Futures Research Institute

meanwhileexistPeriod presentIn the process of dancing together, there are also many unique variations between the two. existFor most of the yearBetween soda ash futures and spot marketsubmitThere is a certain basis difference.,Among them, the spot price is higher than the positive basis of the futures price, andIn May and October, the basis level strengthened to 700 yuan and around 1,500 yuan respectively. As shown by the yellow shaded part in the above figure,This basis differenceA huge change of strength and weaknessIt is not only a true reflection of the relationship between supply and demand in the market, but also provides investors with arbitrage space.

October 2023Soda optionGo public.

The price fluctuation of soda ash futures is usually relatively large, which often makes investors hesitate to chase up or down in the face of futures price fluctuation, fearing that they will bear greater loss risk once the market reverses, and the listing of soda ash options just provides a solution to this problem.

Soda option gives investors the right to buy or sell soda ash futures at a specific price at a specific time in the future after paying a certain royalty. Because the premium of options is relatively low, investors can participate in trading with smaller funds, which not only reduces the risk of large losses, but also participates in the benefits brought by futures price fluctuations.

Image source: Master Boyi

Soda optionListing ofnot onlyFor investorsBrought more richnessRisk management tools, in the face of market price fluctuations, no longer stick to a single.futuresChoice, but by building a variety of options portfolio, cleverly avoid risks. At the same time, the listing of soda options has further enhanced the liquidity of soda futures market. The trading of options has introduced new capital flow to the futures market and increased the activity of the market. This is of positive significance for improving the pricing efficiency and promoting the development of the market.

Next, we will further discuss the upstream and downstream relationship and market dynamics of soda ash industry chain.

The soda ash industrial chain includes three links: upstream raw material supply, midstream production and processing, and downstream consumption and application. Upstream raw material supply mainly involves the exploitation and processing of raw salt, limestone and other resources; Midstream production and processing is the process of converting raw materials into soda ash products; Downstream consumer applications involve glass, detergents, textiles and other industries.

Upstream and downstream industrial chain of soda ash industry 　Image source: Zhengshang Institute

In soda ash industrial chainmiddleupstream,Head production enterpriseEspecially before10bigproduceEnterprise,becauseTheir production capacityIt accounts for a relatively large proportion.CR10 share relativeCentralized, with market supplymoreThe influence of. Therefore, investors should pay close attention to the upstream when they pay attention to the soda ash futures price.Head productionEnterprise’s productivitydynamic.

returnfirstThe soda ash futures market in 2023, we can’t help butitBe impressed by the maturity and charm of.The champion of annual turnover, the distinct rhythm of ups and downs, and the high market participation,theseAll of them fully demonstrate the vitality and potential of the soda ash futures market. At the same time, the listing of soda options and the in-depth development of the industrial chain have also injected new vitality and opportunities into the soda futures market.

To sum up,The soda ash futures market in 2023 is destined to be extraordinary. It witnessed the maturity and growth of the market and the wisdom and courage of investors. I believe that in the future, the soda ash futures market will continue to write its own legendary chapter, and Shen Yin Wanguo Futures will always accompany you to witness the brilliance and glory of the market.